16A.103 Forecasts of revenue and expenditures.
Subdivision 1. State revenue and expenditures. In February and November each year, the commissioner shall prepare a forecast of state revenue and expenditures. The November forecast must be delivered to the legislature and governor no later than the end of the first week of December. The February forecast must be delivered to the legislature and governor by the end of February. Forecasts must be delivered to the legislature and governor on the same day. If requested by the Legislative Commission on Planning and Fiscal Policy, delivery to the legislature must include a presentation to the commission.
Subd. 1a. Forecast parameters. The forecast must assume the continuation of current laws and reasonable estimates of projected growth in the national and state economies and affected populations. Revenue must be estimated for all sources provided for in current law. Expenditures must be estimated for all obligations imposed by law and those projected to occur as a result of variables outside the control of the legislature. Expenditure estimates must not include an allowance for inflation.
Subd. 1b. Forecast variable. In determining the amount of state bonding as it affects debt service, the calculation of investment income, and the other variables to be included in the expenditure part of the forecast, the commissioner must consult with the chairs and lead minority members of the senate State Government Finance Committee and the house Ways and Means Committee, and legislative fiscal staff. This consultation must occur at least three weeks before the forecast is to be released. No later than two weeks prior to the release of the forecast, the commissioner must inform the chairs and lead minority members of the senate State Government Finance Committee and the house Ways and Means Committee, and legislative fiscal staff of any changes in these variables from the previous forecast.
Subd. 1c. Expenditure data. State agencies must submit any revisions in expenditure data the commissioner determines necessary for the forecast to the commissioner at least four weeks prior to the release of the forecast. The information submitted by state agencies and any modifications to that information made by the commissioner must be made available to legislative fiscal staff no later than three weeks prior to the release of the forecast.
Subd. 1d. Revenue data. On a monthly basis, the commissioner must provide legislative fiscal staff with an update of the previous month's state revenues no later than 12 days after the end of that month.
Subd. 1e. Economic information. The commissioner must review economic information including economic forecasts with legislative fiscal staff no later than two weeks before the forecast is released. The commissioner must invite the chairs and lead minority members of the senate State Government Finance Committee and the house Ways and Means Committee, and legislative fiscal staff to attend any meetings held with outside economic advisors. The commissioner must provide legislative fiscal staff with monthly economic forecast information received from outside sources.
Subd. 1f. Personal income. In addition, the commissioner shall forecast Minnesota personal income for each of the years covered by the forecast and include these estimates in the forecast documents.
Subd. 1g. Period to be forecast. A forecast prepared during the first fiscal year of a biennium must cover that biennium and the next biennium. A forecast prepared during the second fiscal year of a biennium must cover that biennium and the next two bienniums.
Subd. 2. Local revenue. In February and November of each year, the commissioner of revenue shall prepare and deliver to the governor and the legislature forecasts of revenue to be received by school districts as a group, counties as a group, and the group of cities and towns that have a population of more than 2,500. The forecasts must assume the continuation of current laws, projections of valuation changes in real property, and reasonable estimates of projected growth in the national and state economies and affected populations. Revenue must be estimated for property taxes, state and federal aids, local sales taxes, if any, and a single projection for all other revenue for each group of affected local governmental units. As part of the February forecast, the commissioner of revenue shall report to the governor and legislature on which groups of local government units exceeded the revenue targets of the governor and legislature in the most recent biennium.
Subd. 3. Repealed, 1999 c 250 art 1 s 115
Subd. 4. Report on expenditure increases. By January 10 of an odd-numbered year, the commissioner of finance must report on those programs or components of programs for which expenditures for the next biennium according to the forecast issued the previous November are projected to increase more than 15 percent over the expenditures for that program in the current biennium. The report must include an analysis of the factors that are causing the increases in expenditures.